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It's an interesting thought. I think I see the logic behind this projection. If weblogs are any indication, content management systems aren't just for businesses, they're becoming increasingly popular with everyday, personal web spaces. So, if commercial and non-profit and personal sites are all setting up tools where the end user isn't dealing with any markup or scripting language, then what need is there for that kind of knowledge?
I think that's a good point to make. But then what happens to the value of making mutable, evolving web sites (or web applications). Do all the designs and layouts of commercial sites relying on content management tools simply remain frozen? When new browsers are released with different ideas of how to render HTML or CSS or have idiosyncratic implementations of the DOM, are they simply ignored since the presentation work has been completed within the tool?
My own experience doesn't exactly follow the pattern of decreasing HTML and CSS work in both content management and web application design. In fact, it's increasing. (At an alarming rate... well, alarming for a back-end coder.) So am I atypical? What's actually happening here?
Well...I think the Moose makes a fine point about evolving HTML needs. Companies that adopt CMS tools won't need to rely on HTML coders to present their material. UNTIL...they decide to change the layout of their pages in a way that isn't easily done within the CMS interface.
In my experience, that's every week. They're companies. They're forced to sail the winds of change in order to retain market share or enter new markets or adapt to competitors' strategic moves.
Nevertheless, I think the Moose is tilting antlers at an interesting phenomenon: an environment where the HTML and CSS needs of companies using content management systems lessen as their web design styles become templatized and as input can come from an end user without messing with front-end markup. But I believe that those needs will still need to be addressed on a fairly consistent basis and therefore must involve somebody. My guess, based on anecdotal evidence, is that the evolution of many sites from static, informative pages to online applications means that UI interface designers and engineers for native system apps will be asked to take on the burden of HTML and CSS knowledge and, in certain cases, asked to help support the CMS for their company.
However, for now I'll bet a lot of companies that have laid off HTML-only coders have probably conscripted some poor hapless Java, C++, or Visual Basic coder (whose weblog looks pretty good, and whose design skill makes an executive staff think that they must know something about HTML or CSS) into writing little clickable demos and changing CMS templates and generally altering their schedule in a way that leaves increasingly less time to architect or write specs or fix bugs...oh, not again, please excuse me for a minute...
...hey, hey, HEY! Get out of my cube! I'll get that demo to you when I'm ready!